New poll shows possible defeat for Theresa May

Deutsche Bank

The seat-by-seat prediction by market research company YouGov for The Times daily suggested that the Conservatives were on course to win 310 seats in the election - short of an absolute majority of 326 seats needed to form a government.

When May called the snap June 8 election at the beginning of March, the Conservative Party led Labour by some 20 points in most opinion polls.

There is little doubt, though, that if the Labour Party can pull off a highly unexpected victory, most likely with the support of the Scottish National Party, it would represent one of the biggest political upsets ever seen in United Kingdom politics.

When May stunned politicians and financial markets on April 18 with her call for a snap election, opinion polls suggested she could emulate Margaret Thatcher's 1983 majority of 144 seats or even threaten Tony Blair's 1997 Labour majority of 179 seats.

The recovery staged by pound last night ended abruptly and with a sharp fall against its major trading counterparts after the well-recognized pollster, YouGov predicted an increased possibility of a Hung Parliament.

With little more than a week to go before the election, the data has caused some alarm in investors who fear the impact a hung parliament may have on the upcoming Brexit negotiations. After a rollercoaster session, where the local currency slumped to $1.2768 after a YouGov poll showed the United Kingdom risks a hung parliament after the general election, it jumped to a day's high of $1.2901 on the back of yet another new opinion poll.

The Times leads with a story saying Theresa May will pitch herself as the "unifying leader of a great national mission", suggesting that the Brexit deal is more important than the TV debate which she did not attend on Wednesday evening.

May backed the "remain" campaign in the runup to last year's referendum on European Union membership, though she made few public appearances.

The headline figures certainly stand out given previous assumptions and polling data pointing to the Conservatives securing a majority. The Electoral Calculus website, which calculates how votes translate into seats on a uniform swing, produces a Tory majority of 16 on those numbers, although that doesn't take into account the pattern of Ukip candidates. It uses a new "constituency-by-constituency" model for polling, which the paper says allows for big variations.

That's not unreasonable, although the Yougov model is different from a traditional poll in that it involves seeking data constituency by constituency.

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